Philadelphia is turning a corner — but the city's finances face a defining test.
Crime is at multi-decade lows. Poverty has dropped below 20% for the first time. The pension is on track. And the FY2027 budget makes bold investments in housing, shelter, and youth. Yet every dollar of progress is funded against a ticking clock: $1.2B in one-time COVID relief is gone by FY2027, reserves will fall from $1.2B to $46M by FY2029, and the structural gap between what the city spends and what it earns has never been wider. This is the story of a city making real gains — and the fiscal reckoning that follows.
VERIFIED DATA Quality of Life — Where Philadelphia Stands in 2025
Homicides — 2025
253
60-Year Low
↓ Down 37% from 562 in 2021
Philadelphia's deadliest year was 2021, with 562 homicides. Four years of sustained investment in violence intervention, police staffing, and community programs has cut that number by more than a third — the lowest count since the 1960s.
Non-Fatal Shooting Victims — 2025
1,030
Best Since 2015
↓ Down 25% year over year
A quarter fewer shooting victims than in 2024 — a reduction of roughly 340 people. The data reflects both enforcement gains and the growing reach of community-based violence interruption programs funded in the FY2026-27 budget.
Poverty Rate — 2024 ACS
19.7%
First Time Below 20%
↓ Down from 23.3% in 2020
Philadelphia has the highest poverty rate among the 10 largest U.S. cities — but this milestone matters. The drop from 23.3% reflects wage growth, SEPTA access expansion, and sustained human-services investment. The work is far from over.
Litter Index Score — 2025 vs 2024
↓ 11%
Year-over-Year Improvement
↑ 6 new daily pothole crews (1 per district) deploying in FY2027
The Litter Index tracks visible litter across Philadelphia's neighborhoods on a 0-4 scale. An 11% citywide improvement represents thousands of block-level assessments. FY2027 adds dedicated pothole and streets crews to sustain momentum — the Streets Dept is among the most understaffed city agencies.
Pension Funded Ratio — 2025
67.7%
On Track to 80% by 2028
↑ Up from 45% in 2015
A decade of disciplined contributions has lifted pension funding from dangerously low (45%) to two-thirds funded (67.7%). The city targets 80% by FY2028 and full funding by FY2033 — a genuinely positive fiscal trajectory inside an otherwise stressed balance sheet.
FY2027 PROPOSED BUDGET Five Bold Investments — What This Budget Actually Does
Economic GPS
$338M
Growth, Prosperity, and Security · Five-Year Operating & Capital Commitment
The city's umbrella economic mobility strategy, combining workforce access, youth career pathways, financial empowerment, small business support, and corridor investment. Rather than a single program, Economic GPS is the framework tying together Philadelphia's broader push to connect residents and neighborhoods to opportunity — including Jumpstart Small Business, Philly Biz Hub, PHL TCB, PHL PRIME, and the new Office of Financial Empowerment. The plan sets a target of serving more than 21,000 businesses annually.
H.O.M.E. Initiative
$800M
Borrowing · Goal: 30,000 housing units
Philadelphia's largest housing intervention in a generation. The Housing, Opportunities, Mobility, and Equity initiative uses $800M in bond financing to acquire land, rehabilitate vacant properties, and build or preserve 30,000 units over five years. Directly targets the city's affordability crisis — the median rent has risen 35% since 2019 while wages have grown 18%.
Wellness Ecosystem
$211M
Annual Operating Commitment
A $211M integrated operating commitment spanning mental health services, substance use treatment, community health workers, and crisis response. Framed as the upstream investment behind the city's public safety gains — addressing root causes of violence, overdose, and homelessness with a coordinated city-wide infrastructure rather than siloed department budgets.
New Shelter Capacity
$110M
Over 5 Years · 1,000 New Shelter Beds
Philadelphia had one of the highest per-capita rates of unsheltered homelessness in the Northeast. This investment adds 1,000 new shelter beds — a 40%+ increase in capacity — while the Office of Homeless Services budget holds at $85M annually. Paired with the H.O.M.E. initiative's housing stock goals.
Career Connected Learning
1,000
New Youth Slots · Workforce Pipeline
Philadelphia's youth unemployment rate is nearly double the national average. Career Connected Learning places 1,000 additional young Philadelphians into paid internships, apprenticeships, and work-based learning programs — partnered with businesses, nonprofits, and city agencies. The program ties directly to the SEPTA subsidy (up 48% since FY2022) that makes these opportunities accessible to youth across all 400+ square miles of the city.
Pothole & Streets Crews
6 New
Daily Crews · One Per Council District
The Streets Department has a 28% vacancy rate — among the worst in city government. FY2027 adds 6 daily pothole crews, one dedicated to each of the city's six council districts, ensuring equitable geographic coverage. Combined with the 11% litter index improvement, this signals a renewed focus on basic city services as a quality-of-life priority.
The Underlying Tension: Real Progress, Real Fiscal Pressure
Every initiative above is funded against a narrowing window. The city's reserve cushion — which stood at $1,179M after COVID relief — is projected to fall to just $46M by FY2029. The FY2027 deficit is $405M, covered by drawing down those reserves. The question this budget raises but does not fully answer: what happens to these investments when the savings run out? Explore the Fiscal Health, Revenue, and Forecast tabs for the full picture.
Revenue vs. Obligations: FY2022 to FY2031
Baseline: FY2022 — first full post-COVID year
Revenue
All money flowing into the city — taxes, fees, grants, and transfers from other funds.
Obligations
All money flowing out — salaries, contracts, debt payments, and benefits. When obligations exceed revenue, the city runs a deficit.
Operating Surplus / Deficit
Surplus = revenue exceeded spending, adding to savings. Deficit = spending exceeded revenue, drawing down savings. Philadelphia plans deficits in FY2026-FY2029 as one-time ARP money runs out — covered by reserves built up during COVID relief years.
How to read: Green line = money coming in. Red line = money going out. When red is above green, the city runs a deficit. Hover for exact figures.
What this chart shows
TrendRevenue exceeded obligations through FY2023. From FY2024, spending outpaces revenue, narrowing toward balance by FY2030-31.
ContextThe FY2026 gap reflects expiry of ARP transfers ($419M in FY2025, now exhausted) and growth in benefits and contracted services.
ContextThe FY2026 gap reflects expiry of ARP transfers ($419M in FY2025, now exhausted) and growth in benefits and contracted services.
Fund Balance Trajectory: FY2022 to FY2031
Baseline: FY2022 actual $779M
Fund Balance
The city's savings account — money built up from years where revenues exceeded spending. A higher fund balance means more financial cushion. The GFOA national minimum is 5% of annual spending; Philadelphia's own target is 8%.
How to read: Each dot = the city's total reserve savings at year-end. Colour signals health: green = above 8%, gold = 5-8% caution, red = below 5% GFOA minimum. Hover any point for balance and percentage.
What this chart shows
TrendFund balance grew from $779M (FY2022) to $1,179M (FY2025), then falls to $46M by FY2029.
ContextGrowth driven by one-time ARP federal COVID relief. The drawdown reflects planned spending as ARP expires.
ImplicationBy FY2029 reserves hit 0.65% of spending — well below GFOA 5% minimum. FY2026 current estimate: $797M — ahead of adopted budget.
ContextGrowth driven by one-time ARP federal COVID relief. The drawdown reflects planned spending as ARP expires.
ImplicationBy FY2029 reserves hit 0.65% of spending — well below GFOA 5% minimum. FY2026 current estimate: $797M — ahead of adopted budget.
Fund Balance as % of Obligations vs GFOA Standard
Baseline: FY2022 (14.6%)
How to read: Each bar = reserves as a share of that year's total spending. Green = above 8%, yellow = 5-8%, amber = 2-5%, red = under 2%. Dashed lines mark the GFOA 5% floor and 8% city target.
What this chart shows
TrendRatio peaked at 18.7% in FY2025. Falls below 5% GFOA minimum from FY2028, reaching 0.65% in FY2029.
ContextPhiladelphia holds a separate Budget Stabilisation Reserve (~$344M by FY2028) providing additional but restricted coverage.
ContextPhiladelphia holds a separate Budget Stabilisation Reserve (~$344M by FY2028) providing additional but restricted coverage.
Year-by-Year Operating Position — FY2022 to FY2031
| Year | Status | Revenue | Obligations | Surplus/(Def.) | Fund Balance | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | ACTUAL | $5,768M | $5,339M | +$481M | $779M | 14.6% |
| FY2023 | ACTUAL | $6,047M | $5,918M | +$202M | $982M | 16.6% |
| FY2024 | ACTUAL | $6,064M | $6,135M | ($39M) | $943M | 15.4% |
| FY2025 | ACTUAL | $6,517M | $6,318M | +$236M | $1,179M | 18.7% |
| FY2026 Estimate | ESTIMATE | $6,339M | $6,901M | ($382M) | $797M | 11.5% |
| FY2027 Proposed | PROPOSED | $6,526M | $6,968M | ($405M) | $392M | 5.6% |
| FY2028 | PROJ. | $6,658M | $6,954M | ($258M) | $133M | 1.9% |
| FY2029 | PROJ. | $6,942M | $7,067M | ($87M) | $46M | 0.65% |
| FY2030 | PROJ. | $7,034M | $7,078M | ($4M) | $42M | 0.59% |
| FY2031 | PROJ. | $7,201M | $7,237M | +$5M | $47M | 0.65% |
FY2025 = verified actual. FY2026 = current year estimate. FY2027 = proposed budget. FY2028-31 = projections. Source: FY2027-31 Five Year Financial Plan.
Debt Service as % of Revenue: FY2022 to FY2030
GFOA warning threshold at 10%
How to read: The line = share of total revenue consumed by debt repayments. Blue dots = below 5% (manageable), orange = 5-7% (caution), red = above 7% (scrutiny). Dashed lines mark 7% caution and 10% GFOA warning thresholds.
What this chart shows
TrendDebt service grew from 3.2% (FY2022) to 5.7% (FY2026 estimate), rising to 6.6% (FY2027).
ContextPhiladelphia remains below the 10% GFOA warning threshold but the trend is consistently upward.
ContextPhiladelphia remains below the 10% GFOA warning threshold but the trend is consistently upward.
Where Revenue Comes From: Full Breakdown FY2024 to FY2030
FY2024-25 = Verified Actuals · FY2026 = Adopted Budget · FY2027 = Proposed · FY2028-30 = Projections
Revenue Structure
Philadelphia's General Fund revenue has five categories shown here: All Tax Revenue (the dominant core — ~67-73% of total; broken out in detail in the Tax Revenue tab below), PICA Surcharge (state-mandated wage-tax transfer — highly reliable), Other Governments (state grants, federal aid — ~6%), Non-Tax Local Revenue (fees, fines, EMS billing, interest — ~6%), and ARP & Other City Funds (one-time COVID relief — now exhausted). The shrinking red ARP segment is the "fiscal cliff" driving projected deficits.
How to read: Each stacked bar = total General Fund revenue for that year in five colour-coded categories. Taller bar = more revenue. The red ARP segment nearly vanishes from FY2026 onward — that is the cliff. The gold All Tax Revenue block shows combined tax growth. Hover any segment for the exact amount and share of total.
The four stories this chart tells
The ARP cliffOther City Funds (red) falls from $488M (FY2025) to $172M (FY2026) to $67M (FY2027) — a $421M collapse as ARP expires.
Tax growth compensates — partiallyCombined taxes grow from $4.09B (FY2024) to $4.79B (FY2027) — a $699M gain. That is real growth but still leaves a structural gap after ARP exits.
PICA grows reliablyThe state-mandated PICA surcharge (light blue) grows from $706M (FY2024) to $861M (FY2029) in lockstep with the wage tax — one of the city's most reliable streams.
Interest earnings collapseThe non-tax category (teal) shrinks partly because City Treasurer interest earnings fall from $101M (FY2024) to $6M (FY2029) as ARP-boosted cash reserves are drawn down.
Tax growth compensates — partiallyCombined taxes grow from $4.09B (FY2024) to $4.79B (FY2027) — a $699M gain. That is real growth but still leaves a structural gap after ARP exits.
PICA grows reliablyThe state-mandated PICA surcharge (light blue) grows from $706M (FY2024) to $861M (FY2029) in lockstep with the wage tax — one of the city's most reliable streams.
Interest earnings collapseThe non-tax category (teal) shrinks partly because City Treasurer interest earnings fall from $101M (FY2024) to $6M (FY2029) as ARP-boosted cash reserves are drawn down.
Tax Revenue by Source: FY2022 to FY2029
Baseline: FY2022 actuals
Tax Revenue
Philadelphia's largest income source (~70% of total revenue), split into four categories: Wage and Earnings (paid by people who work in or live in Philadelphia), Real Property (annual tax on buildings and land), Business / BIRT (tax on business income and receipts), and Other Taxes (sales, beverage, transfer tax, etc.). The red trend line on the right axis shows how much total tax revenue has grown vs. FY2022.
How to read: Each stacked bar = total tax revenue broken into four colour-coded sources. The red line (right axis) shows % growth vs the FY2022 baseline. Hover for individual source values.
What this chart shows
TrendTotal tax revenue grew from $4.14B (FY2022) to $4.41B (FY2025 actual), projected at $4.79B (FY2027).
ContextBIRT grew to $708M actual in FY2025. Real Property Transfer Tax remains below its FY2022 peak due to higher interest rates slowing property sales.
ContextBIRT grew to $708M actual in FY2025. Real Property Transfer Tax remains below its FY2022 peak due to higher interest rates slowing property sales.
The ARP Revenue Cliff
ARP funds drop to zero from FY2027 onward
ARP — American Rescue Plan
One-time federal COVID-19 emergency relief funding spread across FY2022-FY2026. This money cannot recur — once spent, it is gone forever. The "ARP cliff" is the sharp drop when these funds run out, leaving a $420M+ annual gap that only sustained tax growth can replace.
How to read: Each bar = total inter-fund revenue flowing into the General Fund. Red = ARP COVID relief money. Blue = other inter-fund transfers. The dramatic drop after FY2025 is the ARP cliff.
What this chart shows
TrendARP funds grew from $250M (FY2022) to $419M (FY2025), fell to $87M (FY2026 estimate) and zero from FY2027.
ImplicationThe $420M+ reduction between FY2025 and FY2027 is the primary driver of projected deficits.
ImplicationThe $420M+ reduction between FY2025 and FY2027 is the primary driver of projected deficits.
Key Revenue Lines: FY2024 Actual vs FY2027 Proposed
| Revenue Source | FY2024 Actual | FY2025 Actual | FY2027 Proposed | FY24 to FY27 | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage and Earnings Tax | $1,843M | $1,995M | $2,148M | +16.5% | LOW |
| Real Property Tax | $838M | $903M | $982M | +17.1% | LOW |
| Business Tax (BIRT) | $680M | $708M | $806M | +18.6% | MEDIUM |
| Real Property Transfer Tax | $266M | $332M | $354M | +33.2% | HIGH |
| PICA Surcharge | $706M | $761M | $797M | +13.0% | STABLE |
| State Grants (excl. PICA) | $270M | $305M | $340M | +25.9% | STABLE |
| Interest Earnings | $101M | $96M | $24M | -76.2% | DECLINING |
| ARP and Other City Funds | $455M | $488M | $67M | -85.3% | CLIFF |
Two risks to watch: Real Property Transfer Tax and interest earnings
The Real Property Transfer Tax is budgeted for a 33% increase from FY2024 to FY2027 — the most volatile line in the revenue structure, dependent on real estate transaction volume. Interest earnings are falling rapidly as ARP-boosted cash reserves are drawn down. Together these two lines represent a combined $77M+ of revenue uncertainty in FY2027.
Four reference points: FY2022 · FY2024 · FY2026 estimate · FY2027 proposed
This lets you see where spending has been and where it is headed. FY2022 is the pre-ARP baseline; FY2024 is the most recent confirmed actual; FY2026 is the current year estimate; FY2027 is the proposed budget.
Spending by Category: FY2022 to FY2027
FY2022 = pre-ARP baseline · FY2027 = proposed budget
How to read: Each row is a spending category. Four bars per row — blue = FY2022, green = FY2024, gold = FY2026 estimate, red = FY2027 proposed. Longer bar = more spending.
What this chart shows
TrendTotal spending grows from $5.34B (FY2022) to $6.97B (FY2027 proposed) — a 30.5% increase in five years.
ContextWages (+30%), Health benefits (+48%), and Contracts (+63%) are fastest-growing. Labor Reserve drops $102M to $39M as more contracts finalize.
ContextWages (+30%), Health benefits (+48%), and Contracts (+63%) are fastest-growing. Labor Reserve drops $102M to $39M as more contracts finalize.
Total Obligations Trend: FY2022 to FY2031
Actual through FY2025 · FY2026 = estimate · FY2027+ = proposed/projected
How to read: The red filled area shows total spending each year. Grey diamond markers show what was originally adopted in FY2024 and FY2025 — they sit above the actual red line, illustrating underspending due to unfilled positions.
What this chart shows
TrendActual obligations came in $201M below budget in FY2024 and $251M below budget in FY2025.
ContextThe gap is driven by vacancy rates. As hiring fills positions, this underspend buffer narrows.
ContextThe gap is driven by vacancy rates. As hiring fills positions, this underspend buffer narrows.
Employee Benefits Deep Dive: FY2022 to FY2030
Health costs up 48% FY2022 to FY2027
How to read: Each bar = total employee benefit costs split into: dark blue = pension (incl. POB), red = health and medical insurance, grey = FICA and other. Note the FY2029 pension spike (scheduled balloon payment) and steady growth in the red health segment.
What this chart shows
TrendHealth/medical insurance grows from $484M (FY2022) to $718M (FY2027 proposed) — a 48% increase in 5 years.
ContextThe FY2029 pension balloon payment spike then drops sharply as the bond retires in FY2030.
ContextThe FY2029 pension balloon payment spike then drops sharply as the bond retires in FY2030.
Staffing Trajectory: Jun 2020 → 2022 → 2024 → 2025 vs FY2026 & FY2027 Budgets
10 departments · Source: Plans 0–4 (FY2020–FY2027) · ★ Jun 2025 = latest actuals
How to read: Each group = one department, 6 bars. Solid bars = actual filled headcount (light grey = Jun 2020, mid-grey = Jun 2022, blue = Jun 2024, colour-coded = Jun 2025 ★). Outlined bars = authorised budget positions (gold outline = FY2026 adopted, blue outline = FY2027 proposed). Jun 2025 colour: green <10% vacant · yellow 10–19% · amber 20–29% · red ≥30%. Sanitation is a new standalone dept from FY2026 — no prior comparable data. Hover any bar for figures and change vs Jun 2025.
What this chart shows
Police — five years of worseningFrom 7,175 filled (Jun 2020, 1.8% vacancy) to just 6,118 (Jun 2025, 19.8%). The budget grew by 321 authorised positions while actual headcount fell by 1,057. A pipeline and attrition problem, not a budget one.
Fire — the only consistent successUninterrupted year-on-year improvement across all five data points: 22.0% → 15.9% vacancy with a stable 3,392 budget throughout. The model for what successful city hiring looks like.
Prisons — collapse and partial recovery9.7% vacancy (Jun 2020) fell to 42.1% (Jun 2024) before recovering to 29.1% (Jun 2025, +283 positions in a single year). FY2027 raises the authorised ceiling to 2,321 — still more hiring required.
Free Library — budget shock created instant vacancyAn authorised headcount jump from 715 to 961 (FY2023) created apparent 35.7% vacancy overnight. Filled positions have grown steadily (618 → 858) but the headline gap persists because the budget target was raised sharply without a matching hiring surge.
The paradoxAs vacancies close, services improve — but the salary underspend cushion ($201M below budget FY2024, $251M FY2025) that inflated fund balances quietly disappears.
Fire — the only consistent successUninterrupted year-on-year improvement across all five data points: 22.0% → 15.9% vacancy with a stable 3,392 budget throughout. The model for what successful city hiring looks like.
Prisons — collapse and partial recovery9.7% vacancy (Jun 2020) fell to 42.1% (Jun 2024) before recovering to 29.1% (Jun 2025, +283 positions in a single year). FY2027 raises the authorised ceiling to 2,321 — still more hiring required.
Free Library — budget shock created instant vacancyAn authorised headcount jump from 715 to 961 (FY2023) created apparent 35.7% vacancy overnight. Filled positions have grown steadily (618 → 858) but the headline gap persists because the budget target was raised sharply without a matching hiring surge.
The paradoxAs vacancies close, services improve — but the salary underspend cushion ($201M below budget FY2024, $251M FY2025) that inflated fund balances quietly disappears.
Philadelphia has a 19.7% poverty rate — highest among the 10 largest U.S. cities
Equity analysis compares FY2022 (Kenney administration baseline) against FY2027 (Parker administration proposed budget).
Where the Money Goes: FY2027 Proposed Budget ($6.97B Total)
How to read: Each horizontal bar = one budget line, ranked largest to smallest. Longer bar = larger share of the $6.97B total. Hover any bar for the exact dollar amount and percentage of total budget.
What this shows
Key figuresEmployee benefits (26.1%) and Police (13.4%) are the two largest lines. Combined public safety = $1.71B — 24.6% of total.
ContextHuman-services spending = $478M — 6.9% — a ratio of 3.6:1 public safety to human services. Commerce Economic Stimulus is $90M in FY2027, down from $101M in FY2026, directed toward the administration's Economic GPS framework including Jumpstart Small Business, Philly Biz Hub, and neighborhood commercial corridor investment.
ContextHuman-services spending = $478M — 6.9% — a ratio of 3.6:1 public safety to human services. Commerce Economic Stimulus is $90M in FY2027, down from $101M in FY2026, directed toward the administration's Economic GPS framework including Jumpstart Small Business, Philly Biz Hub, and neighborhood commercial corridor investment.
Public Safety vs Human Services: FY2022 to FY2031
Baseline: FY2022 — Kenney administration ratio
How to read: Three lines track spending over time. Red = Police + Fire + Prisons combined. Green = Human Services + Public Health + Homelessness. Blue dashed = School District contribution. A widening gap between red and green means public safety is growing faster in dollar terms.
What this chart shows
TrendPublic safety grows from $1.37B (FY2022) to $1.71B (FY2027 proposed), +25%. Human services grew from $436M to $511M, +17%.
ContextIn absolute dollars, public safety received ~$340M more growth than human services since FY2022.
ContextIn absolute dollars, public safety received ~$340M more growth than human services since FY2022.
Commerce Economic Stimulus — 17x Growth Since FY2022
FY2022 Actual
$6M
to
FY2026 Estimate
$101M
FY2027 Proposed:
$90M
+1,400% vs FY2022
What the plan says — and what it doesn't
Under Mayor Kenney (FY2022) this line was $6M. Under Mayor Parker it reached $101M in FY2026, stepping down to $90M in FY2027. The FY2027-31 Plan does provide strategic direction: the administration's Economic GPS framework frames a broader economic opportunity agenda totalling $107M in operating investments and $231M in capital funding over the six-year program. Named initiatives include Jumpstart Small Business, Philly Biz Hub, PHL TCB, and PHL PRIME. The plan sets a target of serving an additional 8,700 businesses annually — more than 21,000 businesses served per year in total. Commerce is directed to provide direct capital and incentives, help businesses open and grow, attract and retain firms, and invest in neighborhood commercial corridors. For context, the entire Housing Trust Fund General Fund contribution in FY2027 is $34M.
What remains unclear: The plan provides strategic direction and examples of use, but does not fully itemize how the full Economic Stimulus pool is allocated across subprograms, or define eligibility criteria and outcome targets for each dollar. The gap between the scale of investment ($90M) and the precision of public accountability reporting is worth watching.
Key Equity-Relevant Spending Lines: FY2022 to FY2027
| Program | FY2022 Actual | FY2025 Actual | FY2027 Proposed | FY22 to FY27 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEPTA Subsidy | $91M | $133M | $135M | +48.4% | STRONG+ |
| Free Library System | $42M | $68M | $78M | +85.7% | STRONG+ |
| Office of Homeless Services | $55M | $85M | $85M | +54.5% | STRONG+ |
| Human Services (DHS) | $173M | $211M | $235M | +35.8% | POSITIVE |
| Public Health | $154M | $157M | $158M | +2.6% | FLAT |
| Housing Trust Fund | $29M | $31M | $34M | +17.2% | MODEST+ |
| School District Contribution | $256M | $284M | $284M | +10.9% | FLAT REAL |
| Community College Subsidy | $48M | $56M | $56M | +16.7% | RECOVERED |
| Commerce Economic Stimulus | $6M | $35M | $90M | +1,400% | WATCH |
Why Forecast Accuracy Matters
Each year the city adopts a new Five-Year Plan revising prior projections. The key finding: Philadelphia consistently overestimates spending AND underestimates fund balance — both driven by vacancy rates.
Fund Balance: Projections vs Actuals
Each bar group = different plan projections for the same year
How to read: Two groups of bars. Left group = three estimates of FY2024's year-end balance. Right group = same for FY2025. Green bars = verified actuals. Taller actual vs projected bars = the city consistently exceeded expectations.
Left group = projections for FY2024 | Right group = projections for FY2025 | Green = verified actual result
What this chart shows
TrendEvery prior projection was substantially below actual. FY2024: Plan 1 projected $529M, Plan 2 projected $628M, actual $943M (+$315M vs Plan 2). FY2025: projected $915M, actual $1,179M (+$265M).
ImplicationIf FY2026 underspending continues, the year-end fund balance will again exceed the plan projection — consistent with the current $797M estimate.
ImplicationIf FY2026 underspending continues, the year-end fund balance will again exceed the plan projection — consistent with the current $797M estimate.
Obligations: Budgeted vs Actual Spending
Gap between bars = how much the city underspent each year
How to read: Two bars per year. Red outlined bar = what the adopted budget said the city would spend. Green bar = what was actually spent. When green is shorter than red, the city underspent — mainly because positions were unfilled. Hover for the exact underspend amount.
What this chart shows
TrendActual obligations fell short of adopted budget every year FY2022 to FY2025. The gap grew to $251M in FY2025.
ContextPrimary driver is the citywide vacancy rate. As hiring improves, this underspend buffer narrows.
ContextPrimary driver is the citywide vacancy rate. As hiring improves, this underspend buffer narrows.
Cross-Plan Comparison: What Each Plan Projected for FY2026
| Metric | Plan 1 (Jun 2023) | Plan 2 (Jun 2024) | Adopted (Jun 2025) | Current Estimate (Mar 2026) | Change P1 to now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $5,935M | $6,058M | $6,364M | $6,339M | +$404M |
| Total Obligations | $6,237M | $6,333M | $6,843M | $6,901M | +$664M |
| Operating Deficit | ($273M) | ($239M) | ($444M) | ($382M) | Worsened |
| Fund Balance | $234M | $330M | $471M | $797M | +$563M |
| Wage Tax | $1,929M | $2,001M | $2,040M | $2,087M | +$158M |
| Real Property Transfer Tax | $405M | $315M | $373M | $334M | -$71M |
| Purchase of Services | $1,252M | $1,345M | $1,608M | $1,578M | +$326M |
| Debt Service | $381M | $362M | $405M | $362M | -$19M |
Revenues improved but obligations grew faster
Revenue estimates improved by +$404M from Plan 1 to today. But obligations grew +$664M faster. The biggest revision: Purchase of Services contracts +$326M above Plan 1 — systematically underestimated in every plan.